CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Fri 26 Aug 06:00 - Sat 27 Aug 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 26 Aug 06:08 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Large-scale upper low is centered over the Norwegian Sea ... with quite vigorous vort max rotating about its periphery across the Baltic Sea region and Sweden. Weak vort maxima over the Ukraine and the Aegean ... will continue slow eastward progress.

DISCUSSION

...NW Ukraine ... W Belarus ... Baltic States ... S Finland...
Models agree in evolution of weak CAPE amidst narrowing tongue of warm/moist air over ERN/NERN portions of Europe ahead of the large-scale upper low. Though maximum of forcing for UVVs should be somewhat displaced from the SFC frontal boundary/convergence ... isolated/scattered TSTMS should develop in the afternoon/evening hours. Strong LLS should be present per GFS and MM5 ... which should promote strong outflow winds ... and maybe a brief/small tornadic mesocyclone. Coverage of severe should be too low for a SLGT.

...N-central Europe ... SRN Scandinavia...
In the wake of the cold front ... showers and scattered TSTMS should develop with diurnal heating over N-central Europe and SRN Scandinavia. Though majority of the cells should be short-lived and weak ... shear should be marginally supportive of one shallow mesocyclone or two ... capable of marginally severe hail ... severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two.

...Turkey...
A few TSTMS may form over NRN an WRN Turkey based on latest model fields and Friday 00Z ascents. MM5 continues to advertise increasing LLS in the evening hours. Though cells should be rather isolated ... and already in the process of declining due to loss of SFC heating when shear increases ... a mesocyclone ... capable of producing some hail and maybe a brief tornado is not excluded. Threat is quite conditional though ... and a SLGT is not necessary ATTM.

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